Long-Range Scenario Research

Predictive fiction serves as one resource in long-range consumer marketing planning. A case illustration is described in which a panel of experts evaluated the accuracy with which Orwell's 1984 and Huxley's Brave New World predict current times. The literary works were evaluated on a number of categories, such as consumer behavior, consumer goods, the physical environment, government and law, and sex roles and practices. It is found that Huxley's Brave New World represents a significantly more accurate forecast of today and should be regarded as the more valuable resource for the consumer marketing planner. While Orwell predicted the rationing of essentials, Huxley predicted, among other things, consumer goods that appear to be similar to many current products and services - or at least more similar than the forecast of Orwell. A set of guidelines is offered for selecting relevant literary works, analyzing the content of the works, and incorporating the information gathered from the analysis into the consumer marketing planning process.