Land Use Change at the Historical Tourist Attractions of Umm Qais, Jordan: GIS and Markov Chain Analyses

Umm Qais is one of the largest historical tourist sites in Jordan. It is surrounded by different residential and urban activities. To identify and predict the land use changes that may threaten the historical tourist attractions of Umm Qais, this study utilized LANDSAT images of the area for the years 1985, 1991, 2006, 2010, and 2016 and forecasted the change in the years 1997, 2003, and 2022 to monitor the change in barren, agricultural, water, and urban areas. The image analysis and classification were carried out using ArcGIS 10.2 whereas Markov chain analysis was used for forecasting purposes. The results of the study predict that the urban areas will expand by about 21.55% in the year 2022 compared to the year 2016 (15.75%). In addition, agricultural areas will surge by about 35.91%. The expansion in the urban and agricultural areas is predicted to be at the expense of barren areas especially those close to the Umm Qais historical site. These land use changes will cause urban development encroachments onto the cultural landscape of the site. A number of recommendations and policy implications, regarding buffer zoning, land expropriation, stakeholders' involvement, and legislation, are suggested to mitigate the impacts of the current and future urban development activities.