Explaining the temporal and spatial dimensions of robbery: Differences across measures of the physical and social environment

Given the evidence that crime events exhibit both a spatial and a temporal pattern, we explore whether certain social and physical environment characteristics have varying relationships with crime at different times of day. We assess this temporal question using a flexible nonlinear parametric approach on a large sample of street segments (and surrounding spatial area) in Southern California. There are different temporal and spatial patterns for key measures. The presence of total employees in the surrounding area is associated with a reduced robbery risk during the daytime, but not at night. The risk of a robbery is elevated on a high retail segment on weekends during the daytime, and on high restaurant segments into the early evening on weekends. Furthermore, the presence of retail and restaurants in the surrounding area (evidence of shopping districts) was associated with elevated robbery risk in the afternoon and well into the evening. These different temporal patterns indicate the possibility of different mechanisms in operation. •Introduce a flexible nonlinear temporal parametric approach for crime events•Predict crime in segments during hours of the day in Southern California•More robberies on high restaurant segments into the early evening on weekends•Nearby total employees reduce robbery risk during the daytime, but not at night•More robberies with more nearby retail and restaurants in the afternoon and evening