Regional Indexes of Leading Indicators: An Evaluation Of Forecasting Performance

Regional Indexes of Leading Indicators: An Evaluation Of Forecasting Performance

ABSTRACT Indexes of leading indicators are used to forecast short‐run changes in economic activity in many states and metropolitan areas. This article examines the forecasting performance of a sample of such regional indexes over several business cycles. Although these indexes vary across regions, t...

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Veröffentlicht in:Growth and change 1987-07, Vol.18 (3), p.62-73
1. Verfasser: KOZLOWSKI, PAUL J.
Format: Artikel
Sprache:eng
Schlagworte:
Economic conditions
Economic forecasting
Economic indicators
Indexes
Regional
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Zusammenfassung:ABSTRACT Indexes of leading indicators are used to forecast short‐run changes in economic activity in many states and metropolitan areas. This article examines the forecasting performance of a sample of such regional indexes over several business cycles. Although these indexes vary across regions, the results show that they do provide forecasts of recessions and recoveries and also exhibit some potential for forecasting quantitative changes in regional employment.
ISSN:0017-4815
1468-2257
DOI:10.1111/j.1468-2257.1987.tb00081.x