INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS AND FORECASTING

THE TRADITIONAL APPROACH TO BUILDING INTERNATIONAL MODELS HAS BEEN TO TAKE ALREADY BUILT MODELS OF THE INDUSTRIALIZED ECONOMIES AND ATTEMPT TO LINK THEM PRIMARILY THROUGH TRADE FLOWS. THE CHASE ECONOMETRICS INTERNATIONAL MODEL SYSTEM, HOWEVER, ATTEMPTS INTERNATIONAL FORECASTING USING THE SAME INTERNALLY CONSISTENT TECHNIQUES WHICH HAVE BEEN PRACTICED IN THE U.S. THIS IS ACCOMPLISHED NOT THROUGH THE LINKING OF DISPARATE MODELS OF EACH SEPARATE COUNTRY, BUT WITH A SINGLE SUPERSTRUCTURE WHICH FIRST PREDICTS THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK OF THE U.S., JAPAN AND ERMANY AND THEN TRICKLES DOWN TO SMALLER ECONOMIC ENTITIES. THE PRINCIPAL LINKAGES IN THE MODEL INCLUDE THOSE BETWEEN THE REAL AND MONETARY SECTORS OF EACH COUNTRY AND THROUGH TRADE FLOWS IN BOTH CURRENT AND CONSTANT PRICES. THE SYSTEM CAN ALSO BE USED FOR FOREIGN EXCHANGE MOVEMENT, AND OPTIMUM STRATEGIES FOR TRADING OR HEDGING OF FOREIGN CURRENCIES. CHART.