Uncertainty Analysis of a Large-Scale Satellite Finite Element Model

The effects of uncertainties in the material properties and the geometry of a satellite structure are investigated for various aspects of the structural performance. The underlying numerical model is a refined large-scale finite element model, which naturally implies a large number of uncertain parameters. To cope with the computational challenge associated with the large number of parameters, recently developed advanced Monte Carlo simulation methods are applied. Because of their insensitivity with respect to the number of uncertain parameters, these methods are suitable for large-scale finite element models arising in aerospace applications. The numerical results indicate significant scatter in the quantities of interest and hence emphasize the importance of accounting for uncertainties in the numerical model to rationally assess the structural performance and to ensure its reliability. Furthermore, the paper demonstrates that due to the efficiency of the adopted uncertainty analysis methods, the associated computational efforts are greatly reduced and hence manageable, if compared with traditional methods. [PUBLISHER ABSTRACT]