Country risk analysis: The demand and supply of sovereign loans

Tis paper develops a general model of the demand and supply of loans made to the public sector of a third-world country. Its objective is to identify the critical variables of demand and supply and to discuss the current international financial situation within this framework. On the supply side, these loans are treated as part of an optimal portfolio decision while the demand for external loans by a lesser developed country is based on a life-cycle hypothesis of development. After conditions for market equilibrium are established, credit rationing, instability, and default probabilities are discussed.