A MULTIFACTOR ANALYSIS OF COUNTRY FUND RETURNS

Previous closed‐end country fund research concludes that returns behave more like the U.S. market than like their target markets. We argue this finding may be biased by model misspecification and inappropriate estimation techniques. We propose a single‐equation model containing five hypothesized factors of fund returns. We estimate this model for nineteen pooled seasoned funds using a time‐series cross‐section regression that corrects for two types of autocorrelation. We show that returns are strongly related to target markets. Returns are also related to changes in discounts, exchange rates, and other countries' markets, but are only weakly related to the U.S. market. JEL classification: G10, G12