The Availability Heuristic and Perceived Risk

Four studies using a variety of methodologies and products find that the availability heuristic (the ease with which one can bring to mind exemplars of an event) influences consumers' judgments about the likelihood of products failing. Based on past research showing that distinctiveness increases availability, a laboratory experiment (Study 1) manipulated distinctiveness of incidents describing a product failing or succeeding. Study 2 used a similar methodology, but relates attention to product failure estimates. Study 3 is a field study examining product failure distinctiveness and failure estimates. In Study 4, self-reported ease in recalling failure incidents is correlated with judged likelihood of product failure, whereas ease of recalling success incidents is correlated with judged likelihood of product success.