Optimism, Pessimism, and the Direction of Self–Other Comparisons

Two studies (Ns = 234 and 179) are reported in which students made comparative assessments of their own and others' prospects of future examination performance, either by rating themselves in comparison to “typical others” (self–other focus) or by rating “typical others” in comparison to themselves (other–self focus). Participants also provided separate (absolute) estimates for self and others in terms of an evaluative scale and predicted grades. In both studies, under self–other focus, comparative estimates correlated positively with self-estimates but not with other-estimates; under other–self focus, comparative estimates correlated positively with self-estimates and negatively with other-estimates. These findings suggest that unrealistic optimism and better-than-average effects previously found with self–other comparisons primarily reflect self-evaluations rather than the use of a normative standard. Comparative judgments also showed more relative optimism, or positivity, for the self under self–other than under other–self focus. This is applied to predictions of exam performance (both studies), ratings of behavior relevant to exam performance (Study 1), and predictions of future outcomes in the domains of health, achievement, and personal relationships (Study 2). This tendency (for greater optimism under self–other focus) was more marked for positive than for negative outcomes.