Flow Behavior of Santa Maria Airport Landings through Intervention Models

This paper proposes a modeling Flow airport landing in Aracaju Santa Maria. The Aracaju airport needs to expand to meet the demand of passengers, due to the fact that the city is growing and the airport does not match this growth, with its airport complex as a limiting factor. Were collected from INFRAERO and administration of Aracaju airport data for the years 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011. The methodology of intervention models (BOX AND TIAO, 1972). The software used for the analysis of the results was the STATISTICA 11. We tested several models with intervention variable landing and it was observed that the best model that fits the series was ARIMA (0,1,1) with its MAPE of 5.71%, which demonstrates a good fit and predictive power model. We also noticed the nonstationarity of the series, in addition to autocorrelations. The observation intervened for landing was 28 (March / 2009).