Nigerian 330 kV 38-bus transmission network 10-year expansion planning under probabilistic load forecasts

The paper presents a 10-year expansion model for Nigerian 330 kV 38-bus transmission network that adequately accommodates probabilistic growing loads using heuristic time-step power flow simulations approach. Past network operation planning was based on assigned and deterministic load projections that created transmission system performance inadequacy and load-shedding conditions under normal demands. The network simulator was created using NEPLAN software for electrical networks, and specific probabilistic loading model and contingency were applied to obtain the present and prospective system performance responses and expansion requirements. From an analysis of the obtained results, required transmission system reinforcements under the probabilistic loading model were established. The research findings are useful guides for effective transmission grid development in Nigeria.