Geostatistical analysis on the spatial variation of radiogenic elements in the crystalline basement of Grenville Province in the southwestern Québec

Accurate assessment of deep geothermal resources remains a challenge from the practical point of view. Parameter uncertainties and partial knowledge of initial conditions limit the prediction of subsurface temperatures using a variety of thermal models strongly unreliable, and the temperature is highly dependent on the radiogenic heat production in the geological layers mainly affected by a number of factors including the concentrations of uranium, thorium and potassium, and rock density. In this paper, geostatistical methods were applied to investigate the spatial distribution of radiogenic elements (e.g., uranium, thorium, potassium) and their corresponding concentrations and radiogenic heat production. A representative region measuring 35 km × 80 km in the southwestern Québec, and covering the domains of Portneuf-Mauricie, Morin Terrane and Parc des Laurentides in the Grenville Province was selected for this study because of its easy accessibility. Analysis results show that the concentrations of uranium, thorium and potassium for most rocks of the Grenville basement in the research region are in the range of 1–2 ppm, 3–10 ppm and 1–4%, respectively. Furthermore, 90% of the total samples analysed in this study show a uranium concentration of less than 3 ppm, 64% of the samples show a thorium concentration of less than 5 ppm, and 56% of the samples show a potassium concentration of less than 3%. This paper engaged both the ordinary kriging interpolation and sequential Gaussian simulation (SGS) methods to study the spatial distribution of radiogenic elements. Using density data for specific rocks, the distribution of radiogenic heat production in the study area of the southwestern Grenville Province was also simulated using the SGS method. Conclusively, results show that the difference between the minimum and the maximum value of radiogenic heat production is 30%, considering a significant proportion of heterogeneity in rock density.