Is political popularity a random walk?

Is political popularity a random walk?

This paper tets for nonstationarity in the political popularity of UK parties and governments within the context of an economic model which predicts that party support is an ARIMA (0, 1, 1) process. The hypothesis is rejected for the government's popularity but the results for individual party...

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Veröffentlicht in:Applied economics 1991-05, Vol.23 (5), p.967-974
1. Verfasser: Byers, J. D.
Format: Artikel
Sprache:eng
Schlagworte:
Comparative studies
Correlation analysis
Economic models
Forecasting techniques
Government
Hypotheses
Political parties
Popularity
Public opinion
Random walk theory
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Beschreibung
Zusammenfassung:This paper tets for nonstationarity in the political popularity of UK parties and governments within the context of an economic model which predicts that party support is an ARIMA (0, 1, 1) process. The hypothesis is rejected for the government's popularity but the results for individual party support are less clear out.
ISSN:0003-6846
1466-4283
DOI:10.1080/00036849100000045