Evaluation of the energy-saving and emission-reduction potential for Chinese provinces based on regional difference coefficients

Rapid economic growth has resulted in a severe energy shortage and extensive environmental pollution in China. The question of how to save energy and reduce emissions has become a popular topic not only in economic but also in political and social circles. Most of the previous studies on the subject were conducted to evaluate the potential for energy savings and emission reductions. As an indispensable factor, each region's external environment has a strong impact on evaluating its potential for energy savings and emission reductions. However, the prior studies seldom considered each region's external environment, which resulted in research findings that are not rationally convincing. Hence, in this paper, a regional difference coefficient is introduced and calculated by applying technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution to represent the external environment from two perspectives: (1) each region's economic and technical ability and (2) each region's resource reserves and supplies ability. Based on the regional difference coefficients, the original data envelopment analysis model was modified to calculate the potential for energy savings and emission reductions for 30 provincial administrative regions in China from the year 2001–2011. The results show that the gaps in the energy-saving and emission-reduction potential among these 30 regions are large and still increasing. Each region has its own causes for changes in energy savings and emission reductions. Thus, the important factors influencing regional energy savings and emission reductions are analyzed. The paper finds that technical progress and economic strength are the main factors impacting the regional energy-saving performance, especially in the underdeveloped provinces, while the industrial structure and energy mix are important factors influencing China's emission-reduction performance.