A Hybrid Regression‐Neural Network (HR‐NN) Method for Forecasting the Solar Activity

The Sun is the major driver of space weather events, and as a result, most applications requiring modeling/forecasting of space weather phenomena depend largely on the activities of Sun. Accurate modeling of solar activity parameters like the sunspot number (SSN) is therefore considered significant for the quantitative modeling of space weather phenomena. Sunspot number forecasts are applied in ionospheric models like the International Reference Ionosphere model and in several other projects requiring prediction of space weather phenomena. A method called Hybrid Regression‐Neural Network that combines regression analysis and neural network learning is used for forecasting the SSN. Considering the geomagnetic Ap index during the end of the previous cycle (known as the precursor Ap index) as a reliable measurement, we predict the end of solar cycle 24 to be in March 2020 (±7 months), with monthly SSN 5.4 (±5.5). Using an estimated value of precursor Ap index as 5.6 nT for solar cycle 25, we predict the maximum SSN to be 122.1 (±18.2) in January 2025 (±6 months) and the minimum to be 6.0 (±5.5) in April 2031 (±5 months). We found from the model that on changing the assumed value of precursor Ap index (5.6 nT) by ±1 nT, the predicted peak of solar cycle 25 changes by about 11 sunspots for every 1‐nT change in the assumed precursor Ap index. Plain Language Summary A combination of regression and neural network methodology is used to forecast the solar activity using the current and past observed solar parameters. To test the method, the current solar cycle 24 activity is forecasted using previous solar cycles and then the same method is used to predict the upcoming solar cycle 25. The results are presented in this publication. Key Points A Hybrid Regression-Neural Network method is presented for forecasting the solar activity Using the current parameters, the end of solar cycle 24 is estimated to be in March 2020 The Ap index of the current cycle minima is one of the parameters for next solar maximum prediction