Subseasonal Forecasting with an Icosahedral, Vertically Quasi-Lagrangian Coupled Model. Part I: Model Overview and Evaluation of Systematic Errors

The atmospheric hydrostatic Flow-Following Icosahedral Model (FIM), developed for medium-range weather prediction, provides a unique three-dimensional grid structure—a quasi-uniform icosahedral horizontal grid and an adaptive quasi-Lagrangian vertical coordinate. To extend the FIM framework to subseasonal time scales, an icosahedral-grid rendition of the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (iHYCOM) was developed and coupled to FIM. By sharing a common horizontal mesh, air–sea fluxes between the two models are conserved locally and globally. Both models use similar adaptive hybrid vertical coordinates. Another unique aspect of the coupled model (referred to as FIM–iHYCOM) is the use of the Grell–Freitas scale-aware convective scheme in the atmosphere. A multiyear retrospective study is necessary to demonstrate the potential usefulness and allow for immediate bias correction of a subseasonal prediction model. In these two articles, results are shown based on a 16-yr period of hindcasts from FIM–iHYCOM, which has been providing real-time forecasts out to a lead time of 4 weeks for NOAA’s Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) starting July 2017. Part I provides an overview of FIM–iHYCOM and compares its systematic errors at subseasonal time scales to those of NOAA’s operational Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2). Part II uses bias-corrected hindcasts to assess both deterministic and probabilistic subseasonal skill of FIM–iHYCOM. FIM–iHYCOM has smaller biases than CFSv2 for some fields (including precipitation) and comparable biases for other fields (including sea surface temperature). FIM–iHYCOM also has less drift in bias between weeks 1 and 4 than CFSv2. The unique grid structure and physics suite of FIM–iHYCOM is expected to add diversity to multimodel ensemble forecasts at subseasonal time scales in SubX.