Vulnerability-based analysis of the spatial-temporal dynamic patterns of the human-sea territorial system of the Bohai-rim region, China

Vulnerability in human-sea territorial system is a research frontier in regional sustainable development. Studies carries out in human-sea system are of significance to not only the enrichment of the theories of human-land territorial system, but also marine sustainable development. Firstly, we analyzed the marine resources, marine science and technology, marine infrastructure, and marine economic development process of the Bohai-rim region in China. The human-sea territorial systems include three subsystems: the human-sea resources and environment subsystem, the human-sea economic subsystem, and the human-sea society subsystem. Subsequently, we combined the methods of set pair analysis, vulnerability assessment, and combination weight to obtain each index weight, taking the Bohai-rim region as an example to analyze the evolution trends and major factors influencing the vulnerability of the human-sea territorial system from 1996 to 2012. On the whole, the results showed a declining trend of the vulnerability of human-sea territorial system of the Bohairim region during the past 17 years. This shows that the vulnerability index of Shandong is smaller than that of the other provinces; the vulnerability index of Liaoning which belongs to the second tier declines the most; Hebei and Tianjin belong to the third tier, and their vulnerability indexes are relatively higher with the likelihood of a greater decline. Lastly, we classified the vulnerability of human-sea territorial system of the Bohai-rim region from 1996 to 2012 by using the triangle methodology. The results showed that the vulnerability of single subsystem was less than the vulnerabilities of balanced and complex subsystems. This suggests that to reduce the vulnerability of human-sea territorial systems of the Bohai-rim region, we should strengthen the co-ordination of land and sea to optimize the marine industrial structure, take measures to strengthen the control of marine and environmental protection, develop science and technology and cultivate talents, at the same time, to strengthen the construction of marine infrastructure. This paper presents some references for improving the theory and method of the research on the vulnerability of coastal regional and human-sea territorial systems in different regions under the consistent framework.