Temporal-spatial dynamic pattern of forest ecosystem service value affected by climate change in the future in China

The temporal and spatial dynamics in forest ecosystem service value from 1971 to 2000 as a baseline period and the predicted values from 2021 to 2050 in China were analyzed using the calculation method put forward by Costanza,etc.,which is based on the NPP data from the CEVSA model. The results show that the total forest ecosystem service value had an increasing trend,with an annual mean of 12. 80（ 4. 55-20. 72） × 1012,14.81（5.26-23.97） × 1012,and 15.13（5.38-24.49） × 1012 yuan,respectively,for the baseline period and in the future under the RCP4. 5 and RCP8. 5 scenarios. The space distribution was characterized by lower values in the west and northeast,and higher values in the south of China. The values decreased in relatively small areas i. e.,the center of Xinjiang,the west of Inner Mongolia,the northwest of Gansu,the southeast of Tibet,and some forest edges in Northeast China and southern areas,but increased in other regions in the future,relative to the baseline period. The higher amplitude increases in the east and south,and the lower ones in the west and north were examined. The greatest annual rise was 1.87 × 1012 and 2.13 × 1012 under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios,respectively,in South China. The relatively high increase in percentage（ > 45%） was in the north of Northeast China. The contribution rates to service value for individual forest ecosystem function were in the order: soil formation and protection（ 17. 8%） > gas regulation（ 16. 0%） > biodiversity protection（ 14. 9%） > water conservation（14.6%） > climate regulation（12.4%） > raw material production（11.9%） > waste treatment（6.0%） > recreation and culture（ 5.9%） > food production（ 0. 5%）. This study revealed a dynamic evolution pattern for forest ecosystem service values in the future and its corresponding response to climate change in China,which is conducive to providing a scientific and quantitative basis for utilizing forest resources rationally, promoting ecological environment protection, and implementing the sustainable development strategy under climate change.