Deindustrialization, Economic Distress, and Homicide Rates in Midsized Rustbelt Cities

Over the past several years, the United States has experienced a significant decline in homicide rates. For the most part, analyses of this decline have focused on homicide trends in large cities and metropolitan areas. Unfortunately, few people have noticed that smaller cities have not seen a comparable decline in homicide rates. This article examines the relationship between deteriorated economic conditions and homicide rates in 85 midsized cities in the industrial Northeast and Midwest, or “Rustbelt” region of the United States. The authors find that unemployment, inelasticity (i.e., population density), and population change are either directly or indirectly (via socioeconomic deprivation) associated with homicide rates in these cities. Implications for homicide studies of urban locales are discussed.