Predicting Fatal Assault Among the Elderly Using the National Incident-Based Reporting System Crime Data

The elderly are a group susceptible to violent crime and injury because of their increased frailty, heightened fear of crime, and perception of vulnerability by themselves and others. However, limited information on elderly violence is available due to relatively low victimization rates in the United States. A logistic model was developed to predict survival following assault from different demographic and interpersonal factors for the elderly and the general population. Five years of data were obtained from the National Incident-Based Reporting System. Results show the elderly have a higher risk of death from assault than younger age groups and there is evidence of an excessively high risk of fatality in both felony-related and firearm-related assaults for younger and older victims. Assaults involving family/known persons were also associated with a higher fatality risk than incidents involving strangers. Suggestions are made for primary and secondary prevention strategies and issues to consider for future research.