LIFETIME BENEFITS OF IMPROVED HEART FAILURE TREATMENT AMONG OLDER AMERICANS

OBJECTIVES: Lifetime Benefits of Improved Heart Failure Treatment Among Older Americans METHODS: We adapted an established economic-demographic microsimulation to estimate scenarios in which a hypothetical “cure” eliminates the incidence of CHF and, separately, six other diseases in patients aged 50 in 2016. We followed this cohort until death and estimated the total life years and disability-free life years with and without a cure, for the population as a whole and for race- and gender-defined subpopulations. RESULTS: We estimate an increase in CHF prevalence from 4.29% in 2012 to 8.08% in 2030, generally higher than previous estimates. Diagnosis with CHF coincides with significant increase in disability and medical expenditures, particularly among blacks compared with whites. A CHF “cure” among those aged 50 in 2016 would generate nearly 2.7 million additional life years, and over 1.1 million disability-free life years, worth $200 to $400 billion. These gains are generally greater among blacks than whites, thereby reducing disparities. CONCLUSIONS: Improved treatment for CHF could generate significant social value, and reduce existing health disparities.