Re-examining tropical expansion

Observations reveal a poleward expansion of the tropics in recent decades, implying a potential role of human activity. However, although theory and modelling suggest increasing GHG concentrations should widen the tropics, previous observational-based studies depict disparate rates of expansion, including many that are far higher than those simulated by climate models. Here, we review the rates and possible causes of observed and projected tropical widening. By accounting for methodological differences, the tropics are found to have widened about 0.5° of latitude per decade since 1979. However, it is too early to detect robust anthropogenically induced widening imprints due to large internal variability. Future work should target the seasonal and regional signatures of forced widening, as well as the associated dynamical mechanisms. Research suggests the tropics have widened in recent decades. This Review assesses the rates and drivers of observed and projected tropical expansion, surmising that it is too early to detect anthropogenic signals from natural variability.