Do IMF fiscal forecasts add value?

Do IMF fiscal forecasts add value?

We used a panel of 29 advanced and emerging market countries to investigate whether the IMF's World Economic Outlook (WEO) fiscal forecasts add value in terms of forecast accuracy and information content, relative to private sector forecasts (from Consensus Economics). We find that: (i) WEO for...

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Veröffentlicht in:Journal of forecasting 2018-09, Vol.37 (6), p.650-665
Hauptverfasser: An, Zidong, Jalles, João Tovar, Loungani, Prakash, Sousa, Ricardo M.
Format: Artikel
Sprache:eng
Schlagworte:
Accuracy
asymmetry
bias
budget balance
Economic forecasting
Efficiency
Emerging markets
forecast comparison
Information content
information rigidity
Private sector
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Zusammenfassung:We used a panel of 29 advanced and emerging market countries to investigate whether the IMF's World Economic Outlook (WEO) fiscal forecasts add value in terms of forecast accuracy and information content, relative to private sector forecasts (from Consensus Economics). We find that: (i) WEO forecasts are not significantly less accurate than Consensus forecasts; (ii) WEO and Consensus forecasts tend to mutually encompass one another; and (iii) each source of forecasts appears to contain some information that is not embedded in the other source.
ISSN:0277-6693
1099-131X
DOI:10.1002/for.2527