Teardown Index: Impact of property values on carbon dioxide emissions of single family housing in Vancouver

•The research finds that it will take an average of 168 years for efficiency gains to recover the initial embodied carbon emissions caused by building a typical high efficiency home in Vancouver, Canada.•Replacing single family homes with highly efficient buildings of the same type in Vancouver will add 1.3–2.8 million tonnes of CO2e emissions between 2017 and 2050, due to increases in embodied emissions.•For each percent increase to the compound annual growth rate of land values, an additional 150 thousand tonnes of CO2e will be released between 2017 and 2050. Buildings are significant drivers of climate change, generating one third of global greenhouse gas emissions. When new buildings are constructed to high performance standards, increased rates of building replacement spurred by rising property values can raise the operating efficiency of building stocks. However, it can take years before the embodied greenhouse gas emissions associated with new construction are offset by more efficient operations. This paper calculates the carbon dioxide emission payback period of newly constructed efficient single family homes in Vancouver, British Columbia. The average carbon dioxide emission payback period of 168 years for a typical high efficiency new home renders it unlikely that emission savings will be realized before it is replaced. A statistical model called the Teardown Index is presented, which indicates that replacing older poorly performing homes with new high efficiency homes in Vancouver will result in 1.3–2.8 million tonnes of additional carbon dioxide equivalent emissions between 2017 and 2050. For each percent increase to the compound annual growth rate of property values, an additional 150 thousand tonnes of CO2e will be released between 2017-2050. The findings suggest that current policies aimed at reducing emissions through new high efficiency buildings should be reconsidered.