REDD+ implementation in a high forest low deforestation area: Constraints on monitoring forest carbon emissions

•Better quantification of deforestation using a refined processing methodology.•By understanding the interaction of socio-economic and geographical contexts, it is possible to have a better understanding of land use dynamics.•Highly accurate methodologies to monitor deforestation may economically compensate the costs of implementing REDD+ project.•High opportunity for receiving REDD+ benefits, low policy harmonization. Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation and the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in developing countries (REDD+), is still a promising mechanism of the UNFCCC for many tropical countries that would like to receive a fair financial compensation for their historical and current efforts to avoid forest conversion at the expense of more economically land uses. Brazil has a great opportunity to successfully participate in REDD+ not only because of its huge Amazon forest area (ca. 4 million km2) but also because of its advanced forest monitoring system “PRODES”. However, this opportunity could be threatened due to the current differentiated monitoring capacities of most Brazilian Amazon states, markedly in High-Forest and Low-Deforestation (HFLD) regions. This is evident in the State of Amapá, which despite its political will to support actions towards the design of its REDD+ strategy, is still struggling with key technical aspects of forest monitoring. To address this issue and to strengthen the on-going REDD+ design process we assessed a) land use and land cover (LULC) changes for period of 23 years (1985–2008); b) estimated CO2 emissions associated to these LULC changes; c) identified the main drivers and agents of deforestation, and d) discussed policy implications for REDD+ implementation in a HFLD area. We applied a methodology, which is capable of reducing cloud cover using temporal filters on the classified images, detecting deforestation (and forest degradation) in areas as small as 1 ha, and used the decision tree method to identify different LULC types. This methodology was able to demonstrate that forest cover in northern Amapá has remained almost untouched during the observed period of 23-years. As many other HFLD areas, this region has a great potential to receive financial benefits from the REDD+ mechanism, especially from voluntary markets that are largely interested in the conservation value of these areas. However, the use of high accuracy LULC cl