Formation of disjunct plant distributions in Northeast Asia: a case study of Betula davurica using a species distribution model

Repeated climate change during glacial and interglacial periods of the Quaternary led to mass migrations that resulted in disjunct distributions for many species. However, few studies have examined the processes that form disjunct distributions in Northeast Asia (NEA). In this study, we examined the disjunct distribution of Betula davurica Pall. in the Japanese archipelago. This species is a dominant canopy tree found in cool-temperate deciduous broadleaved forests of continental NEA. We hypothesized that Quaternary climate change caused the present disjunct distribution pattern of this species. To test this hypothesis, we adopted a species distribution model and examined a series of potential habitats in the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the mid-Holocene, and the present. We generated models in MaxEnt with B. davurica presence as the response variable and six bioclimatic variables as predictor variables. During the LGM, projected potential habitats were distributed around the Korean Peninsula, East China, and the Japanese archipelago, excluding Hokkaido. In the mid-Holocene, habitats retreated both from East China and western Japan, remained unchanged in the Korean Peninsula and central Honshu mountains, and expanded to northern China, the Russian Far East, as well as northern Japan (Hokkaido). Thus, post-LGM global warming led to an expansion of B. davurica distribution to northern parts of continental NEA, along with a retreat in the Japanese archipelago. This shift in populations formed the present disjunct distribution.