THE MIDDLE INCOME TRAP: AN ASSESSMENT IN TERMS OF TURKISH ECONOMY

Middle income trap is the condition of having the per capita income in a specific level and not having any increase in this income level for many years. The concept of middle income trap is a subject that is frequently discussed in the economic literature in recent years. In this study, it is aimed to evaluate whether Turkey is in middle income trap or not. In addition, the effect of manufacturing industry's share in GDP, schooling rate in higher education and the share of domestic savings in GDP on per capita income level was examined by time series analysis in this context and arguments related with the middle income trap was made. The relationship between the variables in the study was analyzed by Engle Granger cointegration and Engle Granger causality analysis methods. According to the obtained results, a long term relationship was found between the variables which we use. The share of the manufacturing industry within GDP occurred as the cause of the per capita income level. No causality relationship was found between the other variables. According to the evaluations, it is determined that Turkey is not in the middle income trap however it has the risk of having middle income trap.