Time series-based bibliometric analysis of the dynamics of scientific production

We make a comparative study of the dynamics of scientific production for several countries, in terms of papers published, applying time series tools to bibliometric data. The histories of scientific development of groups of countries are compared, seeking to understand the causes and circumstances that led to some dynamic response. We were able to identify dynamical changes that affected global scientific production. Our analysis identified instances where global production was influenced by social, political and economic circumstances. The role of the most productive countries in the current dynamics of knowledge production is also studied. We obtained a vector auto regressive model that describes their joint influences. Thus, the effect of changes in the production of one country on the production of the others can be assessed. The results indicate that the USA and the United Kingdom are still the most influential countries in science, despite the fast growth of China’s production.