Quantitative assessment of the impact of an inter-basin surface-water transfer project on the groundwater flow and groundwater-dependent eco-environment in an oasis in arid northwestern China

Inter-basin water transfer projects (IBWTPs) can involve basins as water donors and water receivers. In contrast to most studies on IBWTPs, which mainly impact the surface-water eco-environment, this study focuses on the impacts of an IBWTP on groundwater and its eco-environment in a water donor basin in an arid area, where surface water and groundwater are exchanged. Surface water is assumed to recharge groundwater and a groundwater numerical simulation model was constructed using MODFLOW. The model was used to quantitatively evaluate the impact of an IBWTP located in the upstream portion of Nalenggele River (the biggest river in the Qaidam basin, Northwest China). The impact involved decrease in spring flow, drawdown of groundwater, reduction in oasis area, and an increase in species replacement of oasis vegetation in the midstream and downstream of the river. Results show that the emergence sites of springs at the front of the oasis will move 2–5 km downstream, and the outflow of springs will decrease by 42 million m 3 /a. The maximum drawdown of groundwater level at the front of the oasis will be 3.6 m and the area across which groundwater drawdown exceeds 2.0 m will be about 59.02 km 2 , accounting for 2.71% of the total area of the oasis. Under such conditions, reeds will gradually be replaced by Tamarix , shrubs, and other alternative plant species. These findings have important implications for the optimization of water resource allocation and protection of the eco-environment in arid regions.