Simulating single-source data: how it fails us just when we need it most

When single-source data are too expensive, or otherwise not available, efficient media planning requires an effective means of linking product usage and media audience data sets if media planners are to target their media efficiently. The simulation approach as a method of linking product usage with television media data is evaluated. It shows that, while the approach is very accurate on the whole, it significantly underestimates the concentration of product users in the audience of selective programs. The results not only bring into question the use of the simulation approach in various media and market analysis models, but it also raises concerns regarding related methods, such as much touted data fusion approach.