Conclusions from the ARF's Copy Research Validity Project

A study analyzes the results from the Advertising Research Foundation's (ARF) Copy Research Validity Project (CRVP). The CRVP examined the ability of 35 copy-testing measures to predict TV commercials' sales results, concluding that none could be rejected and implying that ad likability is the best single measure. The reanalysis suggests very different conclusions. Despite the CRVP's placatory conclusion, a majority of the copy-test measures examined in the CRVP can clearly be rejected for general use. Liking's importance has been overstated: Of those measures that survive the decision rule of 90% correct predictions and significantly above-chance prediction at the 10% level of significance, about half involve ad likability but half do not. Moreover, additional tests following the CRVP suggest that liking, too, fails as a general measure and that a better candidate appears to be pre/post persuasion.