Future climate risk from compound events

Floods, wildfires, heatwaves and droughts often result from a combination of interacting physical processes across multiple spatial and temporal scales. The combination of processes (climate drivers and hazards) leading to a significant impact is referred to as a ‘compound event’. Traditional risk a...

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Veröffentlicht in:Nature climate change 2018-06, Vol.8 (6), p.469-477
Hauptverfasser: Zscheischler, Jakob, Westra, Seth, van den Hurk, Bart J. J. M., Seneviratne, Sonia I., Ward, Philip J., Pitman, Andy, AghaKouchak, Amir, Bresch, David N., Leonard, Michael, Wahl, Thomas, Zhang, Xuebin
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Sprache:eng
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Zusammenfassung:Floods, wildfires, heatwaves and droughts often result from a combination of interacting physical processes across multiple spatial and temporal scales. The combination of processes (climate drivers and hazards) leading to a significant impact is referred to as a ‘compound event’. Traditional risk assessment methods typically only consider one driver and/or hazard at a time, potentially leading to underestimation of risk, as the processes that cause extreme events often interact and are spatially and/or temporally dependent. Here we show how a better understanding of compound events may improve projections of potential high-impact events, and can provide a bridge between climate scientists, engineers, social scientists, impact modellers and decision-makers, who need to work closely together to understand these complex events. Compound events, events of significant impact that are caused by a combination of processes, are difficult to predict. This Perspective discusses the need for a systematic approach to improve risk assessment of these events.
ISSN:1758-678X
1758-6798
DOI:10.1038/s41558-018-0156-3