Risk analysis: Testing some prejudices

This paper describes the development of risk analysis models for a variety of clients and problems over the past eight years, in terms of relationships between perceived problems and the structure of the models used, using contentions or statements of prejudice prior to and after each study. It begins with a situation involving seismic risk to nuclear power stations. En route it considers Arctic pipeline labour availability and consequential cost and time (duration, programme or schedule) risk, Middle East thermal power project contractual risk, North Sea oil and gas production and related onshore project time and cost risk, underground power storage construction cost risk, Arctic liquid natural gas plant reliability risk, risks associated with a river crossing for a large pipeline, and hydro project cost and time risk. The paper concludes that explicit statement of contentions is desirable, but this and the other contentions are debatable.