Effects of phenological synchronization on caterpillar early-instar survival under a changing climate

Early-instar caterpillars experience very high and often very variable mortality; if it is density dependent, it can be a key factor in outbreak dynamics. Plant physical and chemical defenses can be extremely effective against young caterpillars, even of specialists. Phenological asynchrony with host plants can lead to dispersal and mortality in the early instars and increased predation or poor nutrition in later instars. Predation on early-instar larvae (including cannibalism) can be extremely high, parasitism appears generally low, and pathogens acquired early in larval development can lead to high mortality in later stadia. Four well-studied species reveal very different roles of early- instar mortality in population dynamics. In spruce budworm and gypsy moth, early-instar mortality rates can be very high; they do not drive outbreak cycles because density dependence is weak, but can modulate cycles and contribute to outbreak size and duration. For the autumnal moth, early-instar survival depends on host plant synchrony, but may or may not be density dependent. For monarch butterflies, the relative importance of larval mortality rates in population dynamics remains unclear. Tritrophic interactions between herbivores, host plants, natural enemies, and microbes play complex and species-specific roles in early-instar ecology, leading to emergent dynamics in population fluctuations. The phenology of these relationships is often poorly understood, making their responses to climate change unpredictable.