Pedigree reconstruction using molecular data reveals an early warning sign of gene diversity loss in an island population of Tasmanian devils (Sarcophilus harrisii)

Tasmanian devils have experienced an 85% population decline since the emergence of an infectious cancer. In response, a captive insurance population was established in 2006 with a subpopulation later introduced onto Maria Island, Tasmania. We aimed to (1) examine the genetic parameters of the Maria Island population as a stand-alone site and within its broader metapopulation context, (2) assess the efficacy of assisted colonisations, and (3) inform future translocations. This study reconstructs the pedigree of 86 island-born devils using 31 polymorphic microsatellite loci. Combined molecular and pedigree analysis was used to monitor change in population genetic parameters in 4 years since colonisation. Molecular analysis alone revealed no significant change in genetic diversity, while DNA-reconstructed pedigree analysis revealed a statistically significant increase in inbreeding due to skewed founder representation. Pedigree modelling predicted that gene diversity would only be maintained above the threshold of 95% for a further 2 years, dropping to 77.1% after 40 years. Modelling alternative supplementation strategies revealed introducing eight new founders every 3 years will enable the population to retain 95% gene diversity until 2056, provided the translocated animals breed; to ensure this we recommend introducing ten new females every 3 years. We highlight the value of combining pedigree analyses with molecular data, from both a single-site and metapopulation viewpoint, for analysing changes in genetic parameters within populations of conservation concern. The importance of post-release genetic monitoring in an established population is emphasised, given how quickly inbreeding can accumulate and gene diversity be lost.