Overtaking the U.S. Economy by China and India: How Sound Are the Expectations?

This paper attempts to examine the sentiment or euphoria expressed at the beginning of this current century that the two emerging Asian economies--China and India--can overtake the U.S. economy in strength and vigor. It is true indeed that China's GDP is very close to the GDP of the U.S. economy, and India's GDP is still way behind, but the highest growth rate of Indian economy and next highest growth rate of China's economy may make people believe that the U.S. economy may fall behind China's and India's economies in due course. But analyses of comparative structures and economic dynamics of the internal and external balances in the Mundelian fashion exhibit that although nothing can be beyond the range possibility, but the overall picture of the probability of that occurring - that is, China and India overtaking the United States is at best weak enough.