Using multiple scenario analysis to map the competitive futurescape: A practice-based perspective

Uncertainty is rarely exploited as a source of strategic opportunity by managers. Either they extrapolate the future from historical trends, pretend it away, or compensate for uncertainty by arbitrarily demanding higher returns. These common errors are ineffective in identifying new opportunities, blind to potential actions by competitors, and expose the firm to avoidable risk. Forecasting is unlikely to succeed when the future will be shaped by trends that are not extrapolations of the present, or events for which there is no historical precedent. This article explains how to use multiple scenario analysis (MSA) techniques to map the future competitive landscape for strategic decision‐makers. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.