Statistical model selection based on Bayes decision theory and its application to change detection problem

The statistical model selection problems are discussed, and the criterion based on the Bayes decision theory for the detection of the true model is derived. We propose a new Bayesian model selection scheme, which can detect the change points of the parameter of the information source and also estimate each unknown parameter. In this paper, we formulate the Bayes optimal solution of the change detection problem, and analyze its property of the consistency.