Simulated willingness of farmers to adopt fertilizer micro-dosing and rainwater harvesting technologies in semi-arid and sub-humid farming systems in Tanzania

Productivity of African agriculture falls below the global average due mainly to limited use of productivity-enhancing technologies. In Tanzania, smallholders farm without fertilizer on fragile soils in rain-fed areas. Inadequate soil nutrients, nutrient mining, and soil-moisture stress are the main factors limiting crop productivity. Fertilizer micro-dosing (MD) and rainwater harvesting (RWH) through tied ridges appear to be appropriate technologies to help replenish soil nutrients and improve soil moisture for increased crop production. It nonetheless remains unclear whether these technologies can be adopted by smallholder farmers in Tanzania. There have been limited efforts to predict adoption and diffusion of new technologies in Tanzanian agriculture. This paper assesses the willingness of farmers to adopt fertilizer MD with and without tied ridges. Data were obtained from a household baseline study, participatory ex-ante impact assessments, and simulation exercises. Our cross-section analysis used integrated ex-ante assessment tools to understand sustainability and to prioritize and sequence technology adoption and diffusion. Simulation predicted the ex-ante impact of selected technologies, the adoption rate peaks, the likelihood for reaching peaks, and the possible time required to reach peak adoption. Our findings suggest the best paths that technology users should take, while considering factors which affect adoption during research planning, implementation, and testing of the farm level technologies.