Adapting rice production to climate change for sustainable blue water consumption: an economic and virtual water analysis

Sustainable utilization of blue water resources under climate change is of great significance especially for producing high water-consuming crops in water-scarce regions. Based on the virtual water concept, we carried out a comprehensive field-modeling research to find the optimal agricultural practices regarding rice blue water consumption under prospective climate change. The DSSAT-CERES-Rice model was used in combination with 20 GCMs under three Representative Concentration Pathways of low (RCP2.6), intermediate (RCP4.6), and very high (RCP8.5) greenhouse concentrations to predict rice yield and water requirement and related virtual water and economic return for the base and future periods. The crop model was calibrated and validated based on the 2-year field data obtained from consolidated paddy fields of the Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University during 2011 and 2012 rice cropping cycles. Climate change imposes an increase of 0.02–0.04 °C in air temperature which consequently shifts rice growing seasons to winter season, and shorten the length of rice physiological maturity period by 2–15 days. While rice virtual water reduces by 0.1–20.6% during 2011–2070, reduced rice yield by 3.8–22.6% over the late twenty-first century results in a considerable increase in rice virtual water. By increasing the contribution of green water in supplying crop water requirement, earlier cropping could diminish blue water consumption for rice production in the region while cultivation postponement increases irrigation water requirement by 2–195 m 3 ha −1 . Forty days delay in rice cultivation in future will result in 29.9–40.6% yield reduction and 43.9–60% increase in rice virtual water under different scenarios. Earlier cropping during the 2011–2040 and 2041–2070 periods would increase water productivity, unit value of water, and economic value of blue water compared to the base period. Based on the results, management of rice cultivation calendar is a suitable strategy for sustainable blue water consumption for producing rice under future climate.