Urban Growth in the Bucharest Metropolitan Area: Spatial and Temporal Assessment Using Logistic Regression

AbstractThe Bucharest Metropolitan Area (BMA) is witnessing rapid urban growth under the form of urban sprawl, which leads to a continuous expansion of the city over wider territories beyond its outskirts. The relationship between urban growth and proximity explanatory driving factors is one of the most important in understanding and forecasting the spatial and temporal dynamics of sprawl. Thus, the current study only considers distance variables in explaining the process of urban growth and identifying areas most propitious to future urban development. The authors used spatial data extracted from Landsat satellite images and map imagery software using geographical information system (GIS) techniques resulting in five thematic maps—built-up areas, roads, forests, water bodies, and major commercial centers—for two periods: 1990–2002 (T1) and 2002–2015 (T2). In order to identify and quantify urban growth, binary logistic regression was performed to identify empirical relationships between a binary dependent (urban growth) variable and nine independent variables: distance to Bucharest, nearest urban centers, nearest major roads, secondary roads, nearest road junction, existing built-up areas, major commercial centers, forested areas, and water bodies (water courses and lakes). Modeling results demonstrate that urban growth in the BMA has been mainly triggered by transportation networks (both major and secondary) and the proximity of existing built-up areas, whereas natural features (e.g., rivers, lakes, forests) have had no significant influence on urban growth processes, especially after 2002. Therefore, future growth is more likely to occur in areas that have good accessibility and connectivity to the transportation network and in areas close to the existing built-up areas, mainly within localities neighboring the city of Bucharest.