Accuracy of OECD and IMF Projection

Accuracy of OECD and IMF Projection

This paper tests the accuracy of annual forecasts made by the OECD and the IMF of: real GDP growth rate, the GDP deflator, unemployment, and the trade balance. These projections are made for each OECD country, and cover a period of about 25 years. Neither the OECD nor the IMF succeed in forecasting...

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Veröffentlicht in:Journal of policy modeling 2000, Vol.22 (1), p.61-79
1. Verfasser: Kreinin, Mordechai E.
Format: Artikel
Sprache:eng
Schlagworte:
Accuracy
DGP deflator
Economic forecasts
GDP
Gross Domestic Product
Manycountries
Real GDP
Studies
Unbiased forecast
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Zusammenfassung:This paper tests the accuracy of annual forecasts made by the OECD and the IMF of: real GDP growth rate, the GDP deflator, unemployment, and the trade balance. These projections are made for each OECD country, and cover a period of about 25 years. Neither the OECD nor the IMF succeed in forecasting cyclical turning points. But other than that, their projections appear fairly robust and certainly superior to those of a “naive” model.
ISSN:0161-8938
1873-8060
DOI:10.1016/S0161-8938(99)00009-5