Trying to Resolve the Two-Envelope Problem
After explaining the well-known two-envelope 'paradox' by indicating the fallacy involved, we consider the two-envelope 'problem' of evaluating the 'factual' information provided to us in the form of the value contained by the envelope chosen first. We try to provide a...
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Veröffentlicht in: | Synthese (Dordrecht) 2005-05, Vol.145 (1), p.89-109 |
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Hauptverfasser: | , , |
Format: | Artikel |
Sprache: | eng |
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Online-Zugang: | Volltext |
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Zusammenfassung: | After explaining the well-known two-envelope 'paradox' by indicating the fallacy involved, we consider the two-envelope 'problem' of evaluating the 'factual' information provided to us in the form of the value contained by the envelope chosen first. We try to provide a synthesis of contributions from economy, psychology, logic, probability theory (in the form of Bayesian statistics), mathematical statistics (in the form of a decision-theoretic approach) and game theory. We conclude that the two-envelope problem does not allow a satisfactory solution. An interpretation is made for statistical science at large. |
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ISSN: | 0039-7857 1573-0964 |
DOI: | 10.1007/s11229-004-7665-5 |