An econometric analysis of the bank credit scoring problem

Most credit assessment models used in practice are based on simple credit scoring functions estimated by discriminant analysis. These functions are designed to distinguish whether or not applicants belong to the population of ‘would be’ defaulters. We suggest that the traditional view that emphasizes default probability is too narrow. Our model of credit assessment focuses on expected earnings. We demonstrate how maximum likelihood estimates of default probabilities can be obtained from a bivariate ‘censored probit’ framework using a ‘choice-based’ sample originally intended for discriminant analysis. The paper concludes with recommendations for combining these default probability estimates with other parameters of the loan earnings process to obtain a more meaningful model of credit assessment.