Nuclear Air Brayton Combined Cycle and Mark 1 Pebble Bed Fluoride-Salt-Cooled High-Temperature Reactor economic performance in a regulated electricity market

•Mk1 FHR performs favorably compared to both utility and IPP built NGCCs.•Mk1 FHR main performance drivers: electricity price, NG price, and the discount rate.•Mk1 is much more attractive in markets where NG prices are high compared to NGCCs. Understanding the financial performance of an engineered system is a key step to its commercialization. In this study, the economic performance of the Mk1 PB-FHR using a nuclear air combined cycle to produce base load nuclear power, and highly efficient peaking power with gas co-firing, was estimated for a regulated electricity market structure. Initially, a survey of major U.S. nuclear utility holding companies’ financials was performed to estimate a credible range of input parameters. In combination with the main cost parameters of the Mk1 estimated in a companion paper, a base case analysis was performed, demonstrating the economic attractiveness of the Mk1. A sensitivity study demonstrated that the main metrics of concern were electricity price, natural gas price, and the discount rate. These all pointed to possible ways to further reduce the Mk1’s investment risk, such as long term fuel contracts and improved construction management, in order to further increase the attractiveness of Mk1 deployment. Finally, a comparison between the Mk1 and two different natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) plants was made. The Mk1 performance lies in between a utility built and an independent power producer built NGCC. The Mk1 becomes a much more attractive investment than conventional NGCCs in markets where natural gas prices are high.