W(h)ither the Mainline? Trends and Prospects

Total membership in mainline Protestant denominations has been declining for half a century. Sharp decreases in the late 1960s and early 1970s were followed by more modest losses for the next 25 years, with sharper declines returning at the beginning of the twenty-first century. Analysis of denominational data on the components of change reveals two major factors linked to the most recent drop: departures of schismatic congregations in five denominations that have liberalized gay- and lesbian-related policies, and fewer individuals joining mainline denominations. Furthermore, child baptism rates are dropping and, in at least one denomination, the ratio of child professions of faith to child baptisms a decade earlier has fallen faster than membership over the past 13 years. These findings are largely consistent with previous research using national survey data that shows low fertility in the mainline, a drop in transfers into the mainline from more conservative churches, and general increases in the percent of the U.S. population with no religious affiliation. Together, the evidence strongly suggests continued mainline membership losses for the indeterminate future.