A bilevel groundwater management model with minimization of stochastic health risks at the leader level and remediation cost at the follower level

Traditional single-objective programs cannot deal with the tradeoffs between the decision makers who represent different perspectives and have inconsistent decision goals. Multi-objective ones can hardly represent a complex dominant-subordinate relationship between the leader and the follower. This study presents a new bilevel programming model with considering leader–follower-related health-risk and economic goals for optimal groundwater remediation management. The bilevel model is formulated by integrating health-risk assessment and environmental standards (the leader or the environmental concern) and remediation cost (the follower or the economic concern) into a general framework. In addition, stochastic uncertainty in health risk assessment is considered into the decision-making process. The developed bilevel model is then applied to a petroleum-contaminated aquifer in Canada. Results indicate that the performance of bilevel programming can not only meet the low remediation cost as the expectation from the follower but also simultaneously conform to the low contamination level as the expectation from the leader. Furthermore, comparative analyses show that the bilevel model with two-level concerns has the advantage of maximizing the interests and satisfaction degrees of decision makers, which can avoid the extreme results generated from the single-level models.