Interpretation of 850 hPa Temperature in Temperature Forecast of Jiamusi Area

The minimum and maximum air temperature data from January 1, 2012 to December 31, 2015 were the conventional meteorological observation data of the 7 ground weather stations in Jiamusi area. Since Jiamusi area has four distinct seasons and the climatic backgrounds in different months are different from each other, the data were analyzed and modeled in separate stations month by month to better reflect the relationship of daily minimum and maximum air temperature with the 859 hPa temperature at 8:00 am and 20 pm, and to improve the forecast effect of the forecast equation. Outliers rejection In statistics, the measured value with the deviation of over 3 times from the standard deviation is called the highly abnormal outliers117-201. Since the outliers had a great effect on parameter estimation of regression equation, and the outliers themselves were only individual cases without any representativeness, the outliers with over 3 times deviation of the standard deviation were first rejected from the data. The results showed that the predicted result was in general good, and the variation trend was also consistent. [...]it was scientific to analyze the selected forecast factors in terms of the equation itself, which had a certain contribution to the temperature change. [...]the forecast equations established for different stations in different months had high accuracy, which was of certain guiding significance for the forecast of daily minimum and maximum temperature, and it was helpful to improve the forecast accuracy.