A Methodology for Analysing Sustainability in Energy Scenarios

Energy is a key factor in sustainability and a very attractive but risky sector for entrepreneurs. The need for sustainability in the energy sector forces the introduction of renewable sources in any scenario considered, but this investment must be thoroughly assessed. A methodology is required that enables the deduction of a realistic level of participation of renewable energy in the energy scenario in each particular case. Such a methodology should take into account all the factors involved and, by conciliating the different constraints imposed by each of them, find the maximum level of renewable energy possible in the system. This paper introduces a new methodology to address this problem by taking into account demand, generation, level of resources and technologies; and applies it to a particular case in a region of Democratic Republic of Congo. The uncertainties present in the energy sector, as well as the numerous factors at play, call for scenario planning, and this paper presents a structured procedure for viewing plausible futures.